Tassie or the NT? The AFL’s Expansion Conundrum (Pt. 2)

The Northern Territory is one of the most remote and sparsely-populated regions on the planet, let alone the continent of Australia. Founded in 1911 after being separated from South Australia, the Northern Territory — better known as the Territory or just “the NT” — is home to a mere 245,000 people across a land area of 1.34 million square kilometers. To put that in an American perspective, that’s roughly the population of Norfolk, Virginia spread across an area six times the size of California.

The south of the Territory is known as the Red Centre, and it’s home to one of Australia’s most famous landmarks, Uluru — the massive red monolith that sticks out of the desert floor like a sore thumb — as well as the neighboring Kata Tjuta National Park. A few hours northeast lies Alice Springs, a desert outpost of roughly 40,000 people surrounded by gorgeous rock canyons and remote Aboriginal townships.

Further north, the craggy Outback gives way to a more lush, but equally unforgiving landscape. This region is called the “Top End” and is home to the Territory’s capital, Darwin. The smallest capital city in Australia, Darwin is home to a multicultural population and is a stronghold for mining, tourism and the Australian Defence Force, which operates three bases nearby.

In the world of Australian football, the NT has produced more than its share of talent. That includes numerous members of the Rioli family — Cyril, Daniel, Maurice and Dean — as well as other all-time greats like David Kantilla, Nathan Buckley, Gilbert McAdam and Andrew McLeod. At one point, the NT had the highest per-capita representation in the AFL of any Australian state or territory.

Here’s the million-dollar question: can the Northern Territory support a full-time AFL club?

Part 1: The History

Maurice Rioli was one of the first Aboriginal footballers to become a superstar in the Victorian Football League (VFL). After beginning his career in Darwin with the St Mary’s Football Club and in Perth with the South Fremantle Bulldogs, Rioli finally got his shot with the VFL’s Richmond Tigers, where he won the Norm Smith Medal for best on ground in the 1982 Grand Final. Following his retirement, he entered politics, serving in the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly from 1992-2001. Rioli tragically passed away of a heart attack at the age of 53 on Christmas Day, 2010.

The Northern Territory became a new part of Australia in 1911, and the first-ever footy match happened only five years later in Darwin. Since then, the sport has taken off.

There are two major leagues in the NT. The Northern Territory Football League (NTFL) is the only league in the country that operates during the southern summer — when the rest of the country is playing and watching cricket, Darwin and the rest of the Top End are playing footy. Summer is the wet season there, and since cricket can’t be played in damp conditions, the seasons are switched.

In Alice Springs, the Central Australian Football League runs during the winter alongside the AFL and other state leagues. It frequently features talented Aboriginal players from remote communities. Alice Springs is also home to the Ngurratjuta Lightning Carnival, which features so-called “lightning football” games played over shorter halves and quarters. The event occurs over the long Easter Weekend.

In 1941, a pair of Catholic priests, John Pye and Andrew Howley, introduced Aussie rules to the Tiwi Islands, a pair of two remote Aboriginal islands about 100 kilometers north of Darwin in the Timor Sea. The community is fanatical about footy to this day — over 35% of its 3,000 people play the sport (highest rate in the country), and the islands produced the legendary Rioli family, who have all had illustrious footy careers of their own.

Andrew McLeod played for the Adelaide Crows in the 90s and still holds their record with 340 career games. Michael Long was a cult figure for the Essendon Football Club in the 90s and later became a prominent Indigenous rights activist upon his retirement. Former Collingwood coach and player Nathan Buckley was not born in the Territory, but he spent part of his childhood in Darwin and first got significant recognition when he played representative games for the NT.

Altogether, 18 percent of Territorians are registered footballers, per 2017 data from AFL Northern Territory. Nearly half of all participants live in remote areas, and over 34 percent are female. The NT is also home to two prominent representative sides: the Aboriginal All-Stars and its junior footy equivalent, the Flying Boomerangs.

Part 2: The Pros

TIO Stadium was constructed in 1991 as a new venue for Aussie rules matches. It currently hosts one AFL match per year and also is home to the majority of games in the NTFL. It boasts a capacity of 10,000 and is located in the Marrara Sporting Complex, near Darwin International Airport.

The support for footy in the Territory is extremely strong among both Indigenous and non-Indigenous people alike. The local participation rates are very strong for such an isolated and small population. The equally strong history of Territorians making it to the AFL level means that the appetite could be there for a future AFL bid.

In addition to the aforementioned Aboriginal representative sides, the NT Thunder were a Territory-based team that competed alongside Queensland and New South Wales teams in the North East Australian Football League (NEAFL). The Thunder won two NEAFL premierships, but were forced to shut down due to budget concerns in 2019.

A potential AFL team in the NT would strengthen the local talent pool. The NT hasn’t produced many AFL draft picks in recent years, and a local team could change that. It could also serve as a potential launch pad for Aboriginal players who might not have the opportunity to receive national attention otherwise. In the NT — which is roughly 25% Aboriginal Australian — this would be an important development and a unifier for remote communities.

Gilbert McAdam grew up in Alice Springs as the son of a football coach and later had an AFL career with both Brisbane and St Kilda from 1991-96. He’s now a coach, media commentator and TV host. In the NT, McAdam played for the South Alice Football Club in Alice Springs as well as the Southern Districts Crocs in the NTFL.

Many former AFL players from the Territory have returned and played high level footy in the NTFL or the CAFL, including Richard Tambling, Liam Patrick, Relton Roberts, Cameron Ilett and Austin Wonaemerri.

TIO Stadium, located in Darwin, can hold 10,000 spectators and has sold out for AFL matches in the past. The Gold Coast Suns are currently contracted to play one game annually at TIO, while the Melbourne Demons play one game per year at Alice Springs’s Traeger Park. These games typically coincide with the AFL’s Sir Doug Nicholls Indigenous Round, where Aboriginal culture meets hard-hitting football.

The NT government is currently commissioning a feasibility study for an AFL side, although they don’t expect to be considered until 2030. Stuart Totham, the CEO of AFL Northern Territory, has stated that it would likely require $40-50 million to start an AFL franchise in the NT. Due to weather concerns, both Darwin and Alice would likely split the home ground duties.

The Chief Minister for the NT, Michael Gunner, has been in office since 2016; he’s supportive of a Territory-based AFL side and insists it could be done properly.

“The Northern Territory should get the same deal as Tasmania. A Territory AFL team is long overdue and would position the NT as a thriving place to live, visit and do business,” Gunner said.

“I have spoken to the CEO of the AFL, Gil McLachlan, about the potential of a Territory team, and he is supportive of giving Territory talent a better avenue to play AFL footy while living at home.”

A local AFL team could also be a boon for Aboriginal people in the NT. The Michael Long Learning & Leadership Centre (MLLLC) is located at TIO Stadium in Darwin and was set up in 2015 to help Indigenous students reach their full potential both on and off the footy oval. It’s welcomed thousands of kids every year.

“Certainly all the kids in communities aspire to play in the AFL, so the more AFL presence we have in the Territory can only help,” Totham continued.

A September 2017 research study done by Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre discovered that wellbeing among Aboriginal children was significantly higher if they played Aussie rules. Children in those communities who played footy were six percent less likely to have health-related learning disabilities and were 20 percent less likely to be truant from school. Statistics like this could be key in terms of presenting a future AFL team as being beneficial to all Territorians, but particularly at-risk Aboriginal youngsters.

In the past, many talented indigenous players have moved to larger AFL cities like Melbourne or Perth from remote communities and have been forced to retire early due to homesickness and culture shock. An AFL team that’s closer to home could mitigate those factors.

Part 3: The Cons

Traeger Park is located in the city center of Alice Springs and is the local venue for annual AFL matches, as well as CAFL games. The capacity is roughly 7,200, but can be expanded.

Just like Tasmania’s potential AFL bid, the Territory’s future AFL plans could easily run into financial troubles. The NT’s economy is dominated by both tourism and the mining industry, but neither are necessarily a long-term solution for ongoing corporate sponsorship in the AFL world.

“Close to half is probably AFL-covered and covered through match returns, perhaps,” Totham said in a September 2018 interview with the ABC.

“Then you’ve got to find additional income through corporate support and other means.”

Fans of the Hermannsburg Bulldogs show their support at a CAFL game. Located about an hour and a half southwest of Alice Springs, Hermannsburg is an Aboriginal settlement founded by 19th-century Lutheran missionaries, who introduced football to the locals.

The NT’s transient population could also be a factor. While the Territory is the youngest part of Australia (average age: 31) and has a fast-growing population overall, getting residents to stay has been a challenge. Considering that tourism, mining and the Australian military are cyclical industries, Darwin has long had a fluctuating population. As a result, the NT has one of the highest birth rates in Australia, and yet the population of skilled workers hasn’t increased significantly in recent years. As for yours truly, I lived in Darwin for four months and I can personally attest to how much the region dies down once the wet season starts.

Even when it comes to footy, local players are historically transient. Many NTFL players who are from Darwin play their footy at home over the summer, before returning to either work, footy or boarding school in places such as Perth or Adelaide once the NTFL season ends in February. The fly-in, fly-out model has been crucial to the NTFL’s success. An AFL team in the NT will have to work hard to retain out-of-state footballers who aren’t used to the harsh weather and sense of isolation. It’s obvious that an NT team can’t rely on local talent alone.

NTFL action: Aaron Motlop from the Wanderers Eagles looks for a teammate while evading pressure in a game against the Darwin Buffaloes.

Tassie or the NT? The AFL’s Expansion Conundrum (Pt. 1)

Last week, the state premier of Tasmania, Peter Gutwein, shocked many in the world of Australian rules football by demanding that his state be given a new Australian Football League (AFL) team, otherwise they would not continue to host multiple neutral site games during the 2022 AFL season and beyond. The move was eyebrow-raising to say the least; AFL CEO Gillon McLachlan has long resisted establishing a Tasmanian side, instead focusing on growing the game in other areas of Australia. Both Hawthorn and North Melbourne have held four “home” games in Tassie for the last decade-plus, but their current deals expire in 2022.

“We will not finalise the arrangements for the next contract with Hawthorn or North Melbourne until we have clarity from the AFL in terms of our own licence. That clarity doesn’t exist at the moment,” Gutwein said. “I’ve made it perfectly clear to Mr. McLachlan that we cannot and will not finalise those arrangements until we have that clarity.”

The AFL is currently comprised of 18 teams: 10 in the state of Victoria; two in Perth, Western Australia; two in Adelaide, South Australia; two in Sydney, New South Wales; and two in southeast Queensland. The AFL remains Australia’s highest level footy league and inherited the old teams from the erstwhile Victorian Football League (VFL) when it became the AFL in 1990. The Sydney Swans had already relocated from South Melbourne in the 80s, while the West Coast Eagles were the first brand-new non-Victorian side in the new competition in 1987. The Adelaide Crows followed in 1990. Later in the 90s, Fremantle entered the competition as the second Perth team, while the Brisbane Bears and Fitzroy Lions merged to form the Brisbane Lions in 1996.

In the 21st century, the only new teams have been the Gold Coast Suns (2011) and the Greater Western Sydney Giants (2012). This fulfilled legendary AFL coach Ron Barassi’s dream of establishing two franchises in both Queensland and New South Wales. The so-called “Barassi Line” — which separates those two rugby-crazy states from the rest of Australia — had long been considered insurmountable in terms of spreading the code of Aussie rules nationwide.

A map of the current AFL franchises and their locations in Australia. Tasmania, the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory are the only major regions of the country that do not have an AFL side. Map courtesy of the Australian Football Association of North America (AFANA)

So why has Tassie been left out for so long? After all, their history in footy stretches all the way back to the 1860s. They’ve also produced some of the game’s greatest players, including Garry Lyon, Alastair Lynch and Russell Robertson. But with a small population (barely half a million), historic regional rivalries and minimal corporate sponsors, the plan to make a united club for the small state has stagnated. This has been exacerbated by a dwindling local following and struggles to preserve the Tasmanian State League (TSL).

Part 1: The History

Tasmania native Alastair Lynch played in the AFL from 1988-2004, compiling 633 career games, mostly during the Brisbane Lions’ legendary “three-peat” in 2001-03. Lynch now works as an AFL commentator and media personality and is regarded as one of Tasmania’s greatest footballers.

Tasmania was the second state (after Victoria) to embrace Aussie rules as a winter sport in the 1860s. The sport, founded by Aussie cricketers as a way to keep fit in the offseason, quickly spread south across the Bass Strait to Tasmania. The largely rugged and mountainous state developed strong regional competitions in and around the two largest cities on the island — Launceston in the north and the capital, Hobart, in the south. The state hosted three national football carnivals (1924, 1947 and 1966). Alongside Victoria, South Australia, Western Australia and the Northern Territory, Tassie is considered one of the historic “footy states” (as opposed to Queensland and New South Wales, which have historically favored rugby league as the dominant winter sport).

Once the VFL became the AFL, they almost immediately began playing preseason matches in Tasmania. The small state has only two high-quality AFL ovals — Bellerive Oval in Hobart and York Park in Launceston. But back in 1992, Roger Curtis, the president of the successful TSL club Clarence, warned that footy’s presence in Tassie would dwindle if they weren’t represented in the AFL competition.

“The only way to get the kids playing football here is to give them access to the best product available and that, of course, is AFL football,” argued Curtis.

Two years later, Tasmania’s minister of sport, Pete Hodgman, spoke to AFL officials about the possibility of a Tassie team entering the competition by the late 90s. Local and state government figures proposed the construction of a new 30,000-seat stadium suitable for AFL at the Hobart Showgrounds, but the plan eventually fell through.

Tasmanian footballers Zach Burt, Mitch Thorp, Brad Cox-Goodyer, Jay Lockhart and Hamish Leedham strike a pose before a representative match in 2017.

In the 21st century, the TSL began to experience a significant decline in crowd attendance, participation rates and funding. Some clubs began folding. Other smaller leagues merged into others. Many sporting figures and local politicians alike predicted that soccer would overtake Aussie rules in popularity in the near future, and they’ve since been proven right.

When Gold Coast and Greater Western Sydney entered the as the 17th and 18th teams in the AFL, many footy fans elsewhere shook their heads at bringing footy into rugby territory while Tasmania continued to be left out in the cold. Then-AFL CEO Andrew Demetriou shrugged and said, “Tasmanians already watch footy.”

“They probably do deserve a team. We shouldn’t dismiss the contribution that Tasmania has made to our game,” Demetriou continued. “They are absolutely entitled to put forward a proposal, but the commission has already decided where the 17th and 18th teams are going.”

Part 2: The Pros

After Demetriou was succeeded by McLachlan as AFL CEO in 2014, Tasmanians began to become more optimistic about a future AFL side. Shortly after being appointed to his current role, McLachlan threw his support behind the idea of a united Tasmanian team as the 19th AFL side, although he said it wasn’t likely to happen for at least five years. “The building blocks are in place,” McLachlan stated.

Both McLachlan and other AFL figures have discouraged the idea of a struggling Melbourne-based franchise relocating to Tassie in the future. They’ve also ruled out relocating a struggling newer team, such as the Gold Coast Suns, who have not yet made the AFL Finals despite being in the league for a decade now.

Gillon McLachlan, who has been CEO of the AFL since 2014.

In the winter of 2018, McLachlan announced the findings of an AFL committee that had been established to study the feasibility of a permanent AFL team in Tasmania. Among other recommendations, the AFL agreed on several key points heading forward:

1. An extra $1.4 million dollar investment to AFL Tasmania, starting in 2019
2. An extension of Tasmania’s under-12 and under-18 junior footy programs, with more focus on competing in interstate tournaments
3. Full-time men’s and women’s sides (nicknamed the Tassie Mariners) to begin play in the Melbourne-based TAC Cup under-18 competition
4. Continue to provide funding from the AFL to the TSL
5. The creation of three regional administrations to focus on consistent growth throughout the state
6. A new advisory board, made entirely of Tasmanians, to oversee the changes

As of 2018, there are over 90,000 Tasmanians who are members of current AFL sides, which points to a positive sign that they would potentially welcome their own club into the league. There are already plans to bring the Tasmanian Devils team into the VFL and VFL Women’s competitions within the next few years, while the North Melbourne women’s side has also rebranded themselves as the North Melbourne-Tasmanian Kangaroos.

Brett Godfrey, co-founder of Virgin Australia and chair of the AFL Tasmania task force, reported in 2018 that a potential Tassie AFL team would generate roughly $110 million per year and create over 350 local jobs. It would also add about $19 million to the AFL’s current broadcast deal. Despite Tassie’s modestly-sized economy compared to other Australian states, the report also stated that revenues from a local AFL side would be roughly the same as a smaller Melbourne-based team, such as St Kilda or North Melbourne. Godfrey’s report claimed that a local team would cost the state government less than it currently spends to sponsor the Hawthorn and North Melbourne games. By the following year, the task force had collected 60,000 signatures supporting a standalone Tasmanian team.

The Tourism Industry Council of Tasmania chimed in as well:

“A Tasmanian AFL team should play out of both the north and south of the state, with a relatively even number of games in both Hobart and Launceston each year. We believe this principle must be accepted as fundamental to further discussion about an AFL team in Tasmania to completely destruct any perceptions of a ‘southern’ or ‘northern’ team…rather than seeing this as a challenge in the formation of the team, we see it as one of its strengths in being a unifying force within the state and maximising the resources of all regions.”

When asked about the key differences between support for Tasmania from the 2000s to the 2010s, Godfrey was cautiously optimistic.

“The loud and clear message was that the state was hopelessly divided and it was too small for a north or south-centric team,” Godfrey said in an August 2019 interview with The Examiner. “Tasmania 2019 is not the same Tasmania of 2008. It is more vibrant, confident and economically successful. The narrative is justifiable optimism, but our goal is to substantiate the economics to discredit future arguments.”

Chocolate company Mars and MyState Financial have both pledged significant support to a potential AFL side in Tassie. The Spirit of Tasmania ferry company — which offers weekly voyages from Melbourne to Tasmania — currently sponsors North Melbourne to the tune of $1.8 million per year and would likely pledge the same to a new Tasmanian franchise. In the AFL media, many people have thrown their support behind a Tassie team, including ex-St Kilda forward Nick Riewoldt, former Essendon premiership coach Kevin Sheedy and Richmond legend-turned-commentator Matthew Richardson.

Part 2: The Cons

Bellerive Oval, AKA Blundstone Arena due to corporate sponsorship, is the premier AFL and cricket venue in Hobart. The North Melbourne Kangaroos currently host four regular season matches here annually, and the ground’s capacity stands at 19,500.

Back in 2015, McLachlan outlined what he believed to be the harsh reality for a Tasmanian AFL side:

“Tasmania deserves its own team. It just does,” he said. “Their participation rates, their ratings, their attendance — they are as passionate as any state. Their numbers stack up with Victoria and, in my view, they deserve their own team. The brutal reality right now is the economy and scale of growth, which means they financially can’t support their own team playing 11 games. You would need $45 million.”

Some commentators were quick to pounce on McLachlan’s comments, saying that at the time, nearly half of the AFL teams were struggling to hit that $45 million benchmark. Be that as it may, the 2018 report from Godfrey’s task force painted a bleak picture of the status of footy in the state.

“Football has enjoyed a rich history in Tasmania, playing an integral part in its communities and contributing to the national game. Yet the game is under threat — stagnating at best,” the report stated.

As mentioned previously, soccer has overtaken footy in terms of youth and overall participation rates. The A-League — Australia’s top level soccer competition — has attempted to make in-roads within Tasmania and has already discussed starting an expansion franchise in Hobart. In addition, the TSL has been struggling in recent years, with two clubs being forced to fold in 2018. In the 2016 and 2017 NAB AFL Drafts combined, only one player from Tasmania was drafted.

Back in 2008, the state government conducted a survey of Tasmanians: only 48 percent of residents supported an AFL bid, 41 percent said they would consider attending games and a mere 23 percent expressed interest in becoming members.

“The opportunity to join the AFL and AFLW competitions with no negative impact on their existing clubs must be strongly considered to revive and sustain the sport in Tasmania,” the 2018 report recommended. It also cited that both North Melbourne and Hawthorn games have struggled to attract strong attendance figures in recent seasons.

Considering that McLachlan has made it plainly clear that a Tasmanian team is conditional upon dollars and cents, how can Tasmania rake up enough cash to save the sport? And does it make financial sense for the AFL to prop up a dying sport code in Tasmania, regardless of the state’s rich football history? These are tough questions that must be answered quickly.

York Park in Launceston. The stadium hosts the Hawthorn Hawks for four neutral-site matches per season and boasts a capacity of 19,500, just like Bellerive Oval.

Gutwein’s comments from last week come at an interesting time. Like many sports leagues the world over, the AFL has been slammed by the impact of COVID-19. Gutwein didn’t make many friends in the AFL when he closed Tasmania’s borders completely last year, refusing any Hawthorn or North Melbourne games to be played in the state at all. Hawthorn CEO Jeff Kennett — a former Victoria state premier himself — slammed Gutwein as “very selfish.” Meanwhile, Eddie McGuire, media personality and then-president of the Collingwood Football Club, claimed that the AFL and its clubs may need a full decade to recover from the financial impact of the coronavirus pandemic — which, in turn, could pour cold water on Tasmania’s plan to have a club by 2025. By the AFL’s own estimates, the league suffered a $22 million loss due to the coronavirus.

Another major question is facilities. There have been rumors of a potential new stadium and AFL-level training facility in the Hobart suburb of Macquarie Point, although no plans are officially set in stone. As it stands, a Tasmanian AFL team would likely play most of its home games in Hobart as well as a few at York Park in Launceston. Both venues are solid, but not considered AFL-level.

“We think today’s facilities will, as a minimum, require upgrading by a possible entry date,” Godfrey said in his interview with The Examiner. “We also think that to successfully attract and retain competitive talent, our facilities can’t just match AFL standards. It warrants some big-ticket thinking.”

Historically, there’s been a strong rivalry between Launceston and Hobart, similar to Sydney vs Melbourne on the Aussie mainland. Whatever one city does, the other has to do better. Some observers believe that the rivalry has hampered the idea of a unified Tasmanian team.

“In the halcyon days of Tasmanian footy back in the ’60s and ’70s, if Tasmania could’ve found a way to work together — rather than be so parochial and so divided — we’d already have a team of our own by now,” lamented former AFL Tasmania CEO Scott Wade.

Originally from Launceston, Collingwood Magpies forward Brody Mihocek is one of the most prominent Tasmanian footballers currently in the AFL.

While an AFL team has strong support among members of the media and influential footballers and coaches, local support has been more mixed. During a February 2018 interview with SEN, then-AFL Tasmania CEO Trisha Squires seemed on the fence:

“This conversation (about a team in Tassie) does happen a lot, as you can imagine, and people do talk about it,” she said. “And I think it actually distracts us from the great things we have in regards to football. I’m an advocate for what’s best for Tasmanian football and I can’t tell you right now what that is. What I do know is we want as much football content in the state. A standalone club could be a distraction.”

Other arguments against Tasmania have been a small population and an isolated, rural setting that wouldn’t necessarily attract 18 and 19-year-old kids looking to live in an exciting city. On the flipside, one could also make an argument that Hobart or Launceston would have fewer off-field distractions than Melbourne, Perth or Adelaide.

Would AFL draft prospects from Tasmania automatically want to stay home instead of going to the mainland? That remains to be seen, and the lack of elite talent from Tasmania remains alarming. As of last season, less than 30 Tasmanians currently play in the AFL. Hugh Dixon, the 2017 Draft’s only pick from Tassie, was cut by the Fremantle Dockers in September after playing only one game in three AFL seasons.

Godfrey remains undeterred.

“If it was my money, I’d invest in it. It’s not a business, we all know that, but the AFL is and so we’re calling on the AFL, the clubs and the club presidents: if the state deserves a team, you’ve got to act on it. You cannot continue to kick this can down the street. Nobody can say that Tasmania doesn’t have a team because of Tasmania…it’s because others have decided that that’s the case.”

Gutwein still plans to continue to make his case to McLachlan and the AFL as well.

“We know Tasmania is an AFL state…Now is an opportunity for the AFL to actually start with a blank sheet of paper — to determine that they should have a national competition in the future and that Tasmania should have an AFL team at some stage in the future – and for them to consider whether some of those outlying clubs that they have poured so much money into are part of the AFL’s future moving forward.”

2018 season review: Essendon Bombers

• 2018 RECORD: 12-10
• HEAD COACH: John Worsfold, 3rd season (27-40 overall)
• BEST WIN: Round 19. Even though it didn’t play a major factor in their push for Finals action, a 43-point home win over the Sydney Swans was just what the doctor ordered.
• WORST LOSS: The Round 8 defeat to Carlton was by far the most deflating for the Dons, and not just because the Blues finished at the bottom of the ladder in 2018. In a Finals race that was neck and neck until the final match of the season, one more W could have made the difference.
• RETIREMENTS/CUTS: Matt Dea, Brendon Goddard, Josh Green, Matt Leuenberger, Jackson Marrett
• TRADES: Travis Colyer
• KEY ADDITIONS: Dylan Shiel

The Bombers surprised many by making the Finals in 2017, and fans had reason to be optimistic that the team had crawled out of the rubble after a five-year streak of on-field mediocrity and off-field controversy. With lots of offensive firepower and some good depth, Essendon looked like they could push further into the postseason. Unfortunately, the Dons dug themselves into a 2-6 hole and never recovered.

The good news was that midfield bulls Dyson Heppell and Zach Merrett were consistent as usual, and ruckman Tom Bellchambers held his own against some of the AFL’s best all season long. Young defender Aaron Francis received an AFL Rising Star nomination due to his strong work in the latter half of the season, and the 21-year-old Adelaide native has a bright future ahead of him.

Injuries played a big factor in the Bombers’ slide. Tall forward Joe Daniher, after enjoying a huge 2017 campaign, suffered a nagging groin injury that limited him to only seven games, while fellow forward Orazio Fantasia managed only 13. Therefore, the Bombers were left with a shortage of tall timber in the line of attack. Still, exciting young gun Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti chipped in with 26 goals, while prized recruit Jake Stringer led the team with 30.

The Bombers made a big splash in free agency when they landed former GWS star Dylan Shiel, who will combine with former teammate Devon Smith to bolster the Dons’ midfield. Despite an early-season suspension, speedy Irishman Conor McKenna showed marked improvement alongside Adam Saad (17 disposals per game) and Andy McGrath (19.9 per game) in the back end. Small forward Jake Long — son of former Bomber champion Michael Long — managed only two games due to a foot injury, but should be primed to blossom in 2019.

Can Essendon climb the ladder back to Finals contention in ’19? In their defense, they never quit in 2018 despite a horrific first two months, and they finished strong by winning six of their last nine games down the stretch. With an excellent midfield and better luck on the health front, the Dons have the ingredients to take the next step. Still, the Bombers have an AFL-long 14 seasons without a Finals win, and their fanbase is acutely aware of that. And if 2018 is any indication, it’ll be a crowded Finals field once again, so they’ll need to be in top form consistently in order to make a big run.

 

2018 season review: Adelaide Crows

• 2018 RECORD: 12-10
• HEAD COACH: Don Pyke (3rd season, 47-24-1 overall)
• BEST WIN: There were two notable 10-point triumphs over a pair of teams that were serious contenders — the Crows beat the Sydney Swans on the road in Round 5 and the West Coast Eagles in Round 15.
• WORST LOSS: While the whole season was a disappointment, the Crows’ Round 10 loss to Melbourne in Alice Springs was by far the most deflating. Adelaide was non-competitive from the start in a 91-point shellacking.
• RETIREMENTS/CUTS: Harry Dear, Jackson Edwards, Sam Gibson, Curtly Hampton, Ben Jarman, Matthew Signorello
• TRADES: Mitch McGovern

The Adelaide Crows had a chance to rebound after the heartbreaking 2017 Grand Final loss to Richmond, but the season was a huge disappointment as the Crows missed the Finals altogether. Coach Don Pyke’s men weren’t able to gain any traction due to inconsistent form, leadership issues, a rash of hamstring/soft tissue injuries, and rumored locker-room conflict stemming from a bizarre preseason training camp that was described as “cult-like” by anonymous sources in the Australian media.

With that behind them, can the Crows move back to Finals prominence in 2019? They would seem to have the right ingredients, primarily with an engine room that is as good as anyone’s in the competition. Onballer Rory Sloane, winger Paul Seedsman, and brothers Matt and Brad Crouch are still some of the finest midfielders the Crows have boasted in some time, while goalsneak Eddie Betts (29 goals) continues to wow and inspire even at age 31.

Tom Doedee (18 disposals per game) was a revelation as a marking defender, proving that the loss of free agent Jake Lever was no big deal. Look for midfielder Hugh Greenwood to continue his ascension in 2019; the former basketballer led the team with 145 total tackles and finished tied for fourth with 16 goals. The Crows also received a major coup in the offseason when hard-charging vice-captain Rory Sloane spurned overtures from Victorian clubs to re-sign with Adelaide.

Coach Pyke’s men look to bounce back promptly, but the question remains: was 2018’s misery a blip on the radar or the beginning of a troubling trend at West Lakes?

2018 season review: Western Bulldogs

• 2018 RECORD: 8-14
• HEAD COACH: Luke Beveridge (4th season, 52-41 overall)
• BEST WIN: Beating Geelong by two points in Round 15 was a noteworthy win, but more important was Round 21’s upset over the North Melbourne Kangaroos, which helped derail the Roos in their Finals push.
• WORST LOSS: In hindsight, the 54-point Round 5 loss to Fremantle was inexcusable. Yes, the Dogs finished with the same record as the Dockers, but they were still a far better team on paper.
• RETIREMENTS/CUTS/TRADES: Shane Biggs, Kieran Collins, Luke Dahlhaus, Nathan Mullenger-McHugh, Jack Redpath, Clay Smith

Two years ago this month, the Western Bulldogs were on cloud nine after taking home their first AFL premiership in 54 years.

Now, they’re back to the drawing board.

The Bulldogs lost their identity in 2018, winning only eight games and experiencing a frustrating drain of talent, either from previous retirements, veteran players stagnating in their development, and all-around youth. Nonetheless, the Dogs did find some talent to help them in the future, including AFL Rising Star nominees Ed Richards and Aaron Naughton. With more polish and muscle, both could continue to shine. Midfielder Jack Macrae was in career-best form and even earned an All-Australian nod for his efforts.

Forward Billy Gowers led the Doggies with 26 goals and should continue to show improvement in 2019, while Marcus Bontempelli is still one of the best in the game when he’s healthy. Lachie Hunter and Josh Dunkley were key cogs in the midfield, with Dunkley showing new life as a midfielder after his playing small forward didn’t work out.

However, injuries and inexperience were a recurring theme throughout the 2018 season. Veteran midfielder Lin Jong suffered through another rash of bad injury luck, managing only 10 games on the season, while vice-captain Easton Wood had only 12. Former Brisbane Lion Josh Schache didn’t produce enough in his first season at The Kennel, kicking only 17 goals in 13 appearances. Former premiership ruckman Tom Boyd battled the injury bug as well, dislocating his finger and never quite reaching his peak form.

The main problem was the loss of identity. The Bulldogs were known for their hard-running, pressure-oriented attack that confounded opponents during their Cinderella Finals run in ’16, but that mysteriously disappeared in 2018. Even with all the injuries, the Dogs didn’t score enough points and seemed to lack leadership when they needed it the most.

To their credit, the Dogs didn’t run out of gas once they knew they wouldn’t make the Finals; in fact, they looked much better down the stretch, winning three of their last four matches after a dreadful July. While the Dogs didn’t quit down the stretch, and there’s lots of positive momentum stemming from that, there’s still plenty of work cut out for them entering the offseason.

2018 season review: Fremantle Dockers

• 2018 RECORD: 8-14
• HEAD COACH: Ross Lyon, 7th season (87-75-1 overall)
• BEST WIN: A 106-90 win in Round 2 over Essendon was a perfect christening for the Dockers’ new home ground at Optus Stadium in Perth.
• WORST LOSS: Round 22 against Geelong was the most lopsided loss in Fremantle’s history. The Dockers had a decent first quarter and then completely disappeared, losing by a whopping 133 points.
• RETIREMENTS/CUTS: Michael Johnson, Danyle Pearce, Lee Spurr

A 54-point win over a young Western Bulldogs team. A nice 16-point victory over an Essendon squad that was predicted to push for a Finals berth. Nine losses by 50 points or more. A nice core of veterans, led by former Brownlow Medallist Nat Fyfe. An untested group of youngsters that looked great one week and completely lost the next. An embattled veteran coach. Key injuries to key players throughout the season. And a 1-8 record on the road.

Welcome to the Fremantle Football Club, the most schizophrenic team in the AFL.

Ross Lyon’s squad finished 8-14 for the second consecutive year in 2018. The Dockers are still in rebuild mode despite retaining superstar Nat Fyfe, slippery small forward Hayden Ballantyne and gigantic ruckman Aaron Sandilands. The Dockers have blooded plenty of newcomers and youngsters in an effort to consistently get the best starting 22 players each week, with mixed results.

It wasn’t all bad news for the Dockers. Hard-charging midfielder Lachie Neale was arguably in career-best form, while the defensive trio of Joel Hamling, Nathan Wilson and Alex Pearce was solid. Pearce made an admirable recovery from back-to-back leg injuries, averaging 10.8 disposals per game and finishing with 106 contested possessions on the year.

However, despite Fyfe’s brilliance, the Dockers lack skill and consistency up forward. Matt Taberner broke his foot and managed only nine games, while former GWS Giant Cam McCarthy has yet to build on his immense promise in his second season at Fremantle.

As far as the youngsters go, young ruckman Sean Darcy showed some promise while filling in for Sandilands, while veterans Michael Walters and Bradley Hill provide some speed through the midfield. Look for midfielder Adam Cerra, defender Luke Ryan and key forward Brennan Cox to take the next step in their development if they remain healthy.

Freo needs better luck on the injury front and better game preparation in 2019. It seemed too often as if they were caught flat-footed against fastest or taller teams in 2018. Injuries and inexperience throughout the lineup didn’t help. Neither did the fact that Freo finished in the bottom three in points per game.

Is Darcy the long-term solution at ruckman for the aging Sandilands? Can Taberner and McCarthy regain their form? What about Shane Kersten or Brandon Matera? Losing eight out of nine road games is unacceptable. Do the Dockers have enough fight in them to close out more matches?

Fans are hoping to see more exciting brand of footy in 2019. Ross Lyon is contracted until 2020, but this year was not a good look for him in more ways than one. In addition to a poor on-field record, Lyon also had to deal with the fallout of a workplace harassment scandal that was settled out of court at the beginning of the year.

Heading into the draft and the trade period, Freo is hoping to target some big-bodied forwards. The Dockers also need better depth and speed in the midfield. Can they win more than eight games next year? It’s possible, but the bigger question is can they be more competitive on a weekly basis?

2018 season review: Brisbane Lions

• 2018 RECORD: 5-17
• HEAD COACH: Chris Fagan, 2nd season (10-34 overall)
• BEST WIN: Round 17’s win over Hawthorn in Tasmania was a huge upset and a sign that the Lions are rapidly becoming one of the most exciting young teams in the AFL. It was also icing on the cake after defeating the Hawks earlier in the year at home.
• WORST LOSS: Like many young teams suffering growing pains, Brisbane had its share of close losses in 2018, including a five-point defeat to Port Adelaide in Round 3, along with a three-point setback at home to North Melbourne in Round 20.
• RETIREMENTS/CUTS: Jake Barrett, Claye Beams, Tom Bell, Rohan Bewick, Liam Dawson, Cian Hanley, Marco Paparone

On paper, the Brisbane Lions suffered through another mediocre season, finishing 5-17 for the second straight year under coach Chris Fagan. However, there’s plenty of optimism around the Gabba these days; the Lions scored more in 2018, their young players improved all-around, and their average home game attendance was the best since 2015. At their best, Brisbane were competitive in every game and had a quiet confidence, with an exciting group of athletic youngsters who will only improve further in 2019.

It all starts with key forward Eric Hipwood (37 goals), a polished player who is the core of the Lions’ young talent. Hipwood matured in 2018, showing quality leadership and helping boost the confidence of his fellow forwards. After several injury-plagued seasons, utility Allen Christiansen kicked 16 goals and averaged 18 disposals per game. In the midfield, the two Daynes — Zorko and Beams — remain some of the best on-ballers in the AFL.

The Lions also improved significantly in defense, allowing 93 points per game after giving up 117 in 2017. One of the key cogs down back was footy legend Luke Hodge, the four-time premiership winner from Hawthorn who shocked the country by un-retiring and playing for the Lions in 2018. He helped provide a crucial veteran presence alongside Stefan Martin and Harris Andrews.

Heading into 2019, the Lions will be looking to keep small forward Charlie Cameron healthy. The exciting 24-year-old elected to move back to Queensland for family-related reasons and looked like a perfect fit for Brisbane before breaking his foot in Round 11. If the former Adelaide Crow can get back to his prior form, it’ll help significantly in the Lions’ attack. Youngsters Hugh McCluggage, Cam Rayner, Alex Witherden, Zac Bailey and Oscar McInerney also had their moments and will look to continue their development heading forward. The Lions are also rumored to be targeting free agent Lachie Neale from Fremantle in an effort to further bolster their midfield.

Despite the lackluster record, Brisbane is heading into 2019 with a lot of positive momentum and should look to push higher if they can stay reasonably healthy. It remains to be seen how well they can perform under higher expectations, but they should be knocking on the door of the Finals. Chris Fagan and his staff deserve a lot of credit.

 

2018 season review: St Kilda Saints

• 2018 RECORD: 4-17-1
• HEAD COACH: Alan Richardson, 5th season (37-72-2 overall)
• BEST WIN: Round 15’s two-point upset over the Melbourne Demons was a big confidence booster for a team that desperately needed one. Honorable mention: the epic 31-point fourth-quarter comeback against Gold Coast in Round 13.
• WORST LOSS: The first two and a half months of the 2018 season were terrible for St Kilda, but the worst loss may have been a 61-point home loss to what ended up being a mediocre Adelaide team.
• RETIREMENTS/CUTS: Ray Connellan, Nathan Freeman, Sam Gilbert, Hugh Goddard, Darren Minchington, Koby Stevens, Nathan Wright

The Saints had notched 12 wins in 2016 and 11 last year, barely missing out on the Finals both times. Despite the losses of club legends Leigh Montagna and Nick Riewoldt entering 2018, the Saints were bullish on their chances to make another Finals push in ’18.

Didn’t happen. St Kilda won only four games and finished 16th out of 18 teams on the ladder. Embattled coach Alan Richardson will return for a sixth season, but the club is cleaning house with his assistant coaches and is hoping to be more aggressive in free agency this offseason.

One of the bright spots for the Saints was key forward Jade Gresham; the 21-year-old continues to blossom and led the club with 35 goals on the year. Tim Membrey was right behind Gresham with 34 goals of his own and landed a contract extension due to his efforts. Midfielder Seb Ross averaged 30 disposals a game, and Jack Steele showed more promise as an on-baller as well.

However, Jack Billings got off to a slow start and never recovered, many other players stagnated in their development, and Dylan Roberton had a scary heart-related incident in Round 4 against Geelong that caused him to miss significant time. Slippery small forward Ben Long played in only 10 games due to foot problems, and former first round draft pick Luke Dunstan was inconsistent.

In general, St Kilda has suffered from poor match fitness, wayward goalkicking, and inconsistent play. Unfortunately for them, they won’t have many opportunities for drafting youngsters in November, with only one first round pick and none in the second or third rounds. In liue of that, the Saints are hoping to make a splash in free agency and are rumored to be targeting star Sydney midfielder Dan Hannebery, a three-time All-Australian. While there’s still talent on the St Kilda list, they need to keep each other accountable and play to their potential in 2019.

2018 season review: Gold Coast Suns

• 2018 RECORD: 4-18
• HEAD COACH: Stuart Dew, 1st season (4-18 overall)
• BEST WIN: Round 18 vs Sydney. A massive win on the road and one of the club’s biggest all-time upsets since entering the AFL in 2011.
• WORST LOSS: Take your pick. Gold Coast lost eight games by 48 points or more, but the most galling might have been blowing a 31-point third-quarter lead against St Kilda in Round 13.
• RETIREMENTS/CUTS: Michael Barlow, Josh Jaska, Michael Rischitelli, Matt Rosa, Max Spencer, Mackenzie Willis

The Gold Coast Suns faced a lot of uncertainty heading into the 2018 season. Facing another major rebuild — this time without superstar/face of the franchise Gary Ablett Jr. — the Suns were in for some rough sledding under rookie coach Stuart Dew.

Dew’s high intensity style of coaching definitely translated to the field of play, with the Suns showcasing a more up-tempo, pressure-oriented, contested style. Still, it was yet another terrible season overall.

Gold Coast repeatedly faded away in the second half of games, and the mood was dampened further by tall forward Tom Lynch’s midseason PCL injury, plus his subsequent request for a trade. The club culture at the Suns seems to be a perennial problem, and the team’s leadership group needs to take it upon themselves to turn it around and remake the club in Dew’s image.

Despite the forgettable moments in 2018, the Suns still showed some flashes, including a shocking late-season upset of the Sydney Swans, plus two hotly contested rivalry matches against the Brisbane Lions. On another positive note, it seems like most players have bought into Dew’s coaching philosophy, and the club finally has legitimate AFL facilities.

On the personnel front, speedy utility Lachie Weller was a big-time steal from Fremantle, averaging 18 disposals per game, while former Port Adelaide veteran Aaron Young kicked 20 goals. Key forward Alex Sexton (28 goals) and midfielder Touk Miller (22 disposals) were consistent as usual, with Miller showing a knack for dominating the uncontested possessions count. Young midfielder Jack Bowes is a promising talent who could develop into a star with more seasoning, while ruckman Jarrod Witts remains one of the Suns’ most consistent playmakers (39 hit-outs and four clearances per game). Defenders Rory Thompson and Jarrod Harbrow are solid.

However, key forward Peter Wright, who was so valuable in previous seasons, suffered through maddening inconsistency, managing only five goals in seven games. Granted, Wright had a couple nagging injuries to deal with, but going from 31 goals to five in one season is a terrible fall from grace.

In addition to Lynch’s disappointing decision to leave the club, captain Steven May’s future with the Suns might be in doubt, as he becomes a free agent in 2019. The Suns suffered through a rash of injuries in 2018, including classy midfielder Aaron Hall, who only played in six games, midfielder Pearce Hanley (three) and young forward Brayden Fiorini (11).

“The Suns should use their rival, Brisbane, as a blueprint,” says writer Michael Whiting from AFL.com.au. “Forget win totals — the priority is becoming consistent every week and creating a happy club where players want to sign long-term.”

Despite all the issues at the club, there’s a chance that Gold Coast will be substantially better in 2019 if Dew continues to coach at his best. The Suns have talent, but there’s still a lot of work to be done in terms of culture change, accountability and fitness levels.

2018 season review: Carlton Blues

• 2018 RECORD: 2-20
• HEAD COACH: Brendan Bolton, 3rd season (15-51 overall)
• BEST WIN: Round 8 vs Essendon. A shocking 13-point win for the Blues, who were winless at the time and needed a massive pick-me-up.
• WORST LOSS: Round 16 vs Brisbane. It was a great chance for Carlton to snap a mid-season losing streak and they failed miserably, losing to a mediocre Brisbane squad by 65 points on the road.
• RETIREMENTS/CUTS: Jesse Glass-McCasker, Aaron Mullett, Cam O’Shea, Matt Shaw, Alex Silvagni

June 4, 2016 — that’s the last time Carlton scored at least 100 points in a game, an AFL record.

The Blues’ lack of goalkicking firepower has been one of their most glaring issues in the Brendon Bolton era — even as the young coach has spent the majority of his three years at the club burning his roster to the ground and starting from scratch. After a dismal 2018 season — the worst in club history — it’s starting to feel like Bolton could be on a much hotter seat entering 2019, despite reports to the contrary.

Forward Charlie Curnow (34 goals) is still one of the shining stars of the competition, but he has little to no help in the forward line. Ditto for Patrick Cripps in the midfield and Kade Simpson in defense. The Blues simply haven’t had the right mix of talent and experience. Older veterans have faded away in their form, young players haven’t developed the way they should have, and there’s been plenty of injuries. Guys like Harry McKay, Dale Thomas, Caleb Marchbank, Jacob Weitering, Levi Casboult and Jack Silvagni just haven’t been able to consistently provide enough punch for the Blues.

Midfielder Marc Murphy is a great leader for the club, as is ruckman Matthew Kreuzer, but both struggled with injuries all season; Kreuzer’s career could even be in doubt after being diagnosed with a heart murmur late in the year.

Some much-needed good news for Blues fans: All-Australian defender Sam Docherty will return to the side after missing the entirety of 2018 with a torn ACL. Young gun Zac Fisher showed some moxie in his second AFL season, averaging just over 15 disposals per game. Two other key defenders, Lachie Plowman and Jarrod Garlett, should be healthier after managing just 13 and 11 games, respectively, in 2018. Midfielder Paddy Dow showed some awfully good glimpses of his talent, averaging 14.2 disposals per game in his rookie season.

Carlton looks to take a nice crop of youngsters in November’s AFL Draft, while it remains to be seen how ambitious they are in free agency. One thing is for sure: a repeat of 2018’s lackluster performance will be unacceptable.